Hermit lockdown blog update

Today Jack bugged me that I should do a blog post, just for posterity’s sake. But I’ve got no great insight into the world right now. I’m not a doctor, none of this is my area of expertise. I’m just doing like everyone else and trying to be a hermit. Luckily for me, grumpy hermit is my default setting.

Two of my kids have jobs which are necessary and required right now though, so people can keep getting supplies, and both of them are too stubborn to quit. I worry for them.

Even with all this nasty crap going around, and people suffering, I am hopeful for the future. This will pass. Viruses come and go. The economy will get kicked hard, but it will come back. Companies will go out of business and people will lose their jobs, but new ones will start. How long? Beats me. I suppose it depends on how badly we screw up the rest of the year. On the bright side hopefully the world will learn that they don’t want to put all their economic and manufacturing eggs into one communist dictatorship basket.

I’m actually kind of glad that I’ve been kicked off of Facebook for the last few weeks, because I’d be unfriending and blocking people like crazy. There are some truly hysterical people out there, and I’m talking in both directions. These people are basically useless, and all they do is regurgitate asinine bullshit without the slightest bit of fact checking or even critical thinking.

Also, on that note, most of you don’t even understand what the words exponential or logarithmic mean, you sound like idiots, so quit pretending to be epidemiologists. You’re just embarrassing yourselves. You don’t know shit either, so quit acting smug. Sharing every click bait article that comes across your feed doesn’t make you “more serious”. It just makes you annoying.

You can’t take partial data sets of questionable accuracy from a super complex system, and extrapolate out realistic estimates of what’s going to happen in an entirely different super complex system. Some folks, that’s their actual literal job they’re trained for, and they still can’t get it right. When you, Internet Rando do this, you just sound like a dork. There’s nothing wrong with admitting you don’t know what’s going on and that you can’t predict the future.

(on that note, my hopeful paragraph above about stuff will get better… yeah… fingers crossed!)

Okay, I’m not a doctor, but I am passingly familiar with accounting, econ, business, and finance… and most of you don’t have a flipping clue what you’re talking about there either. It’s good I’m not on FB, because I could spend 8-10 hours a day just refuting the stupid memes about the stock market and bail outs (but it wouldn’t matter, because none of those people are capable of listening anyway). I’m not saying their actions were right or wrong either, I’m just saying it helps to have a clue what you’re talking about, and most of you obviously don’t have a clue what even happened at all, because what you’re describing isn’t even what happened.

On the $1000 from the government, I keep seeing dumb ass memes from the right and left saying that A. If you said Trump isn’t your president you should rip it up, or B. if you don’t like socialism, you should rip it up… well, except you’re both idiots, and since I already paid way, way, way, way more than that in taxes for the year, how about I go with C. I’ll take this tiny fraction of my money back and y’all can shut up.  And none of that is a comment on whether this program is actually a good idea or not.

Depending on how long this goes on for, it could cause some real changes in society and how we live our lives. Notice how when the chips are down a bunch of the silly rules, regulations, and unimportant BS we put up with everyday get tossed because they do nothing but get in the way? Well, that should be a hint. I just hope that we don’t replace those stupid things with all new, even more draconian ones.

You can’t call the Chinese virus Chinese because that’s RACISSSSS! Oh shut up, you useless, vapid twits.

Another thing to look at the bright side, I’ve spent most of my life getting laughed at and called paranoid by my elite urban betters about things like preparedness and having food storage… Yep… You guys sure showed us redneck bumpkins what’s up. Oh yeah, and now that the police are otherwise occupied, it turns out all that stuff you said about how easy it is to buy guns was wrong. I eagerly await your apologies after the conclusion of the slow-motion apocalypse.

Stuff’s going to get weird for a bit. Decent people are going to try to do what they think is best and help those around them. Americans are amazing people with an incredible capacity to get shit done when given the opportunity. But our assholes are going to virtue signal, lie their asses off, and try to score cheap political points, so they can hinder rather than help. In times of trial, try not to be an asshole.

Most of us are going to have to chill out for a bit. May I suggest stop freaking out on facebook and go read a book for a bit? My first one (Monster Hunter International) is available free on Amazon and Baen. Go play a video game. Learn to paint minis. Actually talk to your family members. You’re stuck, make the best of it.

Back on FB in 2 Days. Probably Shouldn't Bother, Because It's Really Stupid In There
Correia On Current Events

66 thoughts on “Hermit lockdown blog update”

      1. Wait… Is that the I(International)LOH, or the I(nterdimensional)LOH? I thought this one was a relation of Larry-the-writer, but what do I know…

        And I’d sure like to hear how he really feels…

  1. Thank you, sir. It’s always the accountants who are the most level headed when it comes to stuff like this.

    I say this as I am packing up my bag and transferring files on my office computer so that I can continue to prepare income tax returns for my numerous clients from home. April 15th is still April 15th.

  2. My hope is that the current “I have to do WHAT to buy a gun?!? But I need one NOW!!!” will have the same tonic effect on gun rights that the old Clinton AWB did back in 94.
    People tend to not notice things until it actually becomes personal.

    1. I have a hard time feeling bad for people who take a steaming dump in the bed only to complain about the fecal content of their bedding. It’s the ones they shouted (or sometimes beat) down and couldn’t afford to leave the city/state who I feel bad for. It’s the ones who never learned any better because Turd McSquirty was their teacher.

  3. Meanwhile I’m just sitting over here wondering what the hell I’m gonna do this weekend since my plans were to annoy the hell out of Larry and others at the Durham convention. On the plus side, my range is far enough out in the boonies, and they canceled the big match, so it’s open this weekend. Guess I’ll go come up with a reason to have to reload. 😀 😀

  4. I agree with everything you said. However i am bummed you wont be in North Carolina this weekend, inwas looking forward to meeting you

  5. I work in a gun shop in Knoxville Tennessee. There are lots of people moving here from places that are more “enlightened” when it comes to firearm laws.

    From talking to my coworkers, if I had a dollar for every question about: why they have to fill out federal paperwork; run the TICS check (still the most accurate acronym for a gov’t program); or how do they register their guns (they don’t). I could probably afford a new gun.

  6. Hi folks. Below, 3 sites:
    2 explain the pandemic problem and containment.
    The 3rd has summat on quinine, and other methods being used.
    From the Great White North, where Bigfoot & Beth are self-isolating!
    :
    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
    :
    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
    :
    :
    https://www.wired.com/story/an-old-malaria-drug-may-fight-covid-19-and-silicon-valleys-into-it/
    :
    :

  7. I’m one of the people who show up every day so that people can shop and get their basic supplies if they can. The store where I cashier has for the most part been one of the few where the customers are thinking about others and buying just what they need. On the other hand those that haven’t are very memorable. Like the one this morning that decided that he needed 30+ gallons of milk for his store when we are limiting sales to three gallons and no businesses for the duration. We will make exceptions to limited items for daycares and people who are providing meals for kids who are out of school but no one else. It may sound harsh but the early panic buying nearly wiped us out and we are a WalMart super center so we are trying to maintain a supply for our ever day customers. We are still very low on most of those items and the distribution center that supplies this store among others nearly got wiped out as well.

    1. And the truckers are having a hard time getting stuff to you because they can’t buy food from restaurants and there are states closing all the rest stops. . . .

      1. I think Larry mentioned, “just hope that we don’t replace those stupid things with all new, even more draconian ones.”

        In my book, kneecapping your own internal, national supply system qualifies.

  8. I will reply here with a comment I made earlier on FB since that wonderful platform has once again banned our illustrious host. If you have knowledge that can help someone, legitimate knowledge, not just about firearms but any beneficial knowledge share it. The people who are out frantically trying to buy a gun now that we are in the midst of an emergency are terrified. This is quite probably the same reason they were all in favor of banning guns before they thought they would need one. If you take the time now to share a little hard earned knowledge instead of a smug I told you so you might create an ally later down the road.

  9. I politely bowed out of Facebook a number of years ago. I’m so much more chilled out just in my normal daily life since. I can’t even imagine what it’s like on there right now. Eeek.

  10. I am rather annoyed at the behaviour of people here in Australia. The insane panic buying clearing the shelves, and the response of groceries is to stop delivering groceries. Everyone’s gone full retard and now I am wishing I had gone Mormon-stockpile, or at least close to it (more accurately, fixed my house supply since I stockpile regularly since I get sick so often), but having a new baby at the start of the year kind of stopped me from doing that, and I don’t have a car or can drive.

    None of this would be a worry to anyone, me included if people didn’t go insane. Well, we know now what will happen if the zombie apocalypse ever happened for real, and so many people would be EATEN.

    SO MUCH ARGH, QUIT HOARDING YOU

    1. It’s just your nation’s internal Mad Max yearning to be free. ☺

      Good luck. Just stock up and avoid the Crazy to the extent you can.

  11. I hope this chloroquine treatment thing is real, though I’m skeptical of anything with the supposed effectiveness rate I’ve seen claimed.

    1. The effectiveness rate was from a small study, so a wider error band is normal and 100% is probably well within the margin of error. Also keep in mind that even without this treatment the mortality rate is 3.4% or less, so we aren’t talking about that big a swing in outcome.

    2. When I read that Chloroquine was supposedly effective, my first reaction was “OK, now the hysterics will be panic-buying Tonic Water and Gin. The Return of the medicinal Gin-and-Tonic!”

        1. You can use it to make glow-in-the-dark jello jigglers. This is important if you are suddenly home with the kiddos 24/7.

    3. Other than the side effects, mainly explosive diarrhea and hair loss, that stuff kills anything and everything. You also can’t sleep from the really weird head aches. The annoying part for malaria, is the “prevention” is the exact same as the treatment, so lots of trips to India with a paranoid company, they “make” you take that stuff. I’ve got a stockpile now, as I only took it on two trips, then realized a few things. 1. We weren’t traveling anywhere NEAR malaria regions. 2. The pills made me miserable and unable to function. 3. See #1. 4. It’s not the military, so we don’t have anyone watching us take the pills. 😀 Sooo, get given the bag of drugs, stick them in suitcase, take them out when I come home. 😀

  12. I’ve actually been listening to the audio of MHI (the actual MHI, though I’m continuing with MHV, of course) anyway. My wife and I are basically hermits as it is, so we really haven’t noticed except for the Catholic diocese getting shut down as part of the panic over CoronaPanic. Which is not a statement on the validity of CoronaPanic, just the panic over it. :p

  13. Just hoping the antivirals tested work for this bug and people can get back to normal sooner rather than later.

    Best of luck with the next books sir. Look forward to reading them.

  14. Yep, pretty much ignoring everybody except Speaker. He knows what he’s talking about… I discounted all of my ebooks for a week. Living in a small town is nice right about now. 🙂

  15. If banks are shut down, how will people cash the gubmint checks? If postal workers are stuck at home how will people get the checks
    in the first place? Also, when the walking orifices say Trump bungled the response to the outbreak, ask them why didn’t Pelosi and
    Co declare an emergency on their own, months ago. And finally, say that Trump had
    said in Jan or Feb, we are shutting the country
    down for a month or two and you have one week to prepare, can you imagine the chaos
    and mayhem that would have caused. Maybe Trump could have done better, but he certainly could have done worse.

  16. The left-wingers want communism?

    Well, they’ve taken a big step in that direction; the stores have no food on the shelves!

    Next, they want everybody to “Show us your papers” (say that with a thick Russian accent) just to go to the empty store.

  17. The maples are blooming early this year.

    Allergy season in other words.

    Not fun in unusually high number of ways, this year.

  18. The people with literally no clue about statistics and scale bug me the most. One case where this happenes means XYZ *WILL* happen to all of us! The curve will keep going up forever! Reeee, we’re all gonna die (yep, just not this year!) As the saying goes, it isn’t the individual that scares me, it is the masses.

  19. Ole John Ringo had this pegged in 2009. I don’t know how we wound up living The Last Centurion, but I’m keeping an eye out for Bandit 6.

    At least we haven’t gone to war with Iran yet.

  20. Love and miss your easily accessible sass on FB…. But Jack was right. Needed this. I hope your kids stay healthy, and you continue to enjoy your mountain with your lovely wife, and growing waffle hound. <3

    Also, relistening to MHI on this ban, as it is inspiring me to move around/clean/work/school the children, and is appreciated. So yay for you being you!

  21. My daughter got her first job in November – at a grocery store. She’s volunteered for extra shifts since she’s out of school (this week is normal Spring Break, next week is when the ZOMG break starts), is doing online learning (we signed her up for a program when she was 5, and have kept it up since then), and reading Pride and Prejudice and Zombies. I plan to work on some DIY Badges for my girl scout troop this weekend so I can mail them out Monday (no school means no meetings, since the meeting space is closed).

    Other than that, my day-to-day hasn’t changed. I’ve worked remotely since 2015, and hubby will be going to work as long as the Marines are marining.

  22. Reading Monster Hunter Memoirs now only because I’ve read all the other MHI books already.

    But giving out the first MHI for free? That’s like offering the first hit for free… No way people won’t get addicted. Good plan.

    Oh, and maybe the extra hermiting will help with the eighth novel coming along…?. Maybe? 😉

  23. “Random voluntary associations” (John Ringo term) are already forming in my 1,200 house subdivision. People are volunteering extra baby formula, picking up things at the store to leave on doorsteps of “high-risk” folks, helping out with educational and entertainment ideas for the out-of-school kids. They are cluing people in on what stores to go to for foods and goods in short supply right now. This is one time where a Facebook group is helping people do good stuff.

  24. Thank you for posting this, Larry! Insightful and hilarious, as always.

    For my household, we’re doing what we can to stay ahead of the curve. Preparedness has always been a part of our plan as well, though we’ve noticed gaps in that as a result of not considering every possible angle, and also from complacency over the last few years. Now we’re back up to hurricane preparedness, ready — but not eager — for disruptions in the supply chain.

    As my pastor and I like to say, “Pray for the Rapture, but prepare for the Tribulation!” Take care, all. Stay safe, and keep the faith!

  25. A local church brought around bags of snacks for kids. I thought that was really nice. We don’t have any small kids and I’m paranoid enough that we bought some stuff a few weeks ago (I’m considering adopting a Mormon attitude about keeping stores on hand going forward) so one of my kids took the bags to the neighbors who have kids. She also took them eggs. Because we have eggs.

    We’ll probably check again next week, knock on the door and stand back, ask if everyone’s okay and do you want eggs.

  26. You know what’s high-larious?
    All the stupid gun-grabbers going online, ordering a gun, AND EXPECTING A GUN TO ARRIVE AT THEIR FRONT DOOR.

    How many billions of times have they been told that’s not how it works?

    1. Colion Noir had a field day with this. Not only are the gun-grabbers proving themselves to be utter hypocrites by scrambling for guns and ammo right now, but they’re now stumped by the reality of just how uninformed their beliefs are.

      Meanwhile, the Southern Balkans are still pretty calm, lockdown and all. Particularly since the countries are agriculturally focused, so suspending the import-export process doesn’t threaten the supply of basic necessities. Factor in the cultural memory of the 90’s breadlines, the fact that Eastern Europeans are already infamously unpretentious about creature comforts, and that we’re just too jaded to care about a global crisis compared to our own local sludge, and you get a pretty successful recipe for enduring the unfolding events.

      At most, I’m concerned about various migrant/refugee groups stirring up trouble if the supplies to camps are cut, but I imagine even they won’t be pressing their luck right now. All in all, I think we’ll survive the month. Can’t say the same if the quarantine gets extended though.

  27. I’d like to say that I’m amazed at how media peopel can read a story about the anti-viral drug trials and all the research and treatment options that are being rushed through, then inhale and decry the fact that the EOTW is nigh and the world will be locked down for 18 months. Without changing expression.

    But after this long? They don’t hear what they – or anyone else – are saying. Much like a lot of social media. I’m getting classes ready for shifting to on line [yuck], working on short stories and novels, and doing yard work. And trying to go about the rest of my life the way I usually do.

  28. Great post Larry.

    I’m noting that all the “backward hick states” and “flyover country” (I recently had someone from LA use that term on me) have been the least hard hit by this so far. Hopefully that trend continues.

    I too have noticed the rollback of stupid rules and am watching with great interest, hopefully people learn from this. I’m not sure a large portion of them will.

  29. No, really, the last of us died late Thursday afternoon, this is purgatory.

    When I calm down and think about how unpleasant following the disaster noise is, finding some real work to go do sounds really attractive.

  30. Well said! Everyone down here in La has basically been ok except for the dicks not tipping the servers when they order take out! I mean really people, it’s a college town and that kid bringing the food out to your car is only getting 5 bucks an hour because his boss says,”oh you will get tips.” NO they aren’t. These are the people getting f’d over and they won’t have rent money. My son is lucky he has us, what about those who aren’t so lucky????

  31. Larry I don’t FB so I appreciate your blog posts. Keep up the writing in all forms. Thanks for giving me something to occupy my mind as business as dentist is shuttered for the next 2–3 months.

  32. Larry said,

    “You can’t take partial data sets of questionable accuracy from a super complex system, and extrapolate out realistic estimates of what’s going to happen in an entirely different super complex system. ”

    Exactly. I mean, who do they think they are? Climatologists?

  33. As Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) suggested, tip double normal amounts. I can confirm that you will create some happiness right there.

  34. Larry, I always enjoy your perceptive posts. Thanks for taking the time. I work in a call center. We have to be there and I’d rather not. However, we are pretty careful about wiping things down and washing our hands. It’s good to be careful. It’s just plain stupid to panic and start claiming the sky is falling. Social distancing? Ha! Try that in cubicle land.

    This is an epidemic. People will get sick. Some will die and that’s going to be rough on both them and their loved ones. It will also pass. They always do, for better or worse. Panic buying, whether it be of guns or toilet paper, is kind of foolish, but it’s very human. My SO calls me a food hoarder. I’m feeling pretty vindicated at the moment!

    I am starting to truly hate the media however, as they see an opportunity to sell product by pumping the panic button and they are more than willing to do it. This event is a big deal, but it’s not the end of the world. I wish our leaders had been a bit quicker to respond, but I think what they are currently doing is pretty good. That private industry is stepping up and doing what they can to cope is even better. Wish more people would stop trying to look out only for number one, and start considering the community. I see that more in small towns than cities.

  35. Hey, long time reader, first time writer. Just wanted to say that I really appreciate this post. There’s a lot of (understandable, if sometimes misplaced) hysteria going around, and it’s refreshing to have you as a pillar of disgruntled calm in this uncertain time. Hope you and your family stay safe.

  36. On partial data sets, I have only to add…..Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.

    Keep your powder dry

    Keep your larder stocked

    Keep your tank full

  37. Fractal Rabbit, that’s what I did for a living for, er, decades. I had to be right 95% of the time, unlike weather dweebs and climatologists, for the reasons in “The Last Centurion”.

    Common Sense is a very large, salty block placed on the table before briefing and showing physical results. Decision makers don’t like Common Sense + results, but prefer happy-face modeling. I preferred having family and friends come home in one piece.

    Common Sense is now asking “why do we need these regulations, or the middlemen employed to make us obey them?” and “why was this made too complex to work?”

  38. Must say I’m feeling better about things today than I was last Saturday. Numbers I’m privy to from the Ontario Medical Association indicate that the COVID-19 aka Wuhan Flu is not going to kill people who do not have underlying serious medical conditions.

    But, otoh that means that the elderly and others who -do- have those types of problems are at risk. A quarantine buys time for them, as treatments are rushed forward and hospital beds made ready.

    Here in Ontario the farce of the public hospitals “readiness” is becoming appallingly apparent. They not only don’t have sufficient beds for serious cases, they don’t have BASIC protective gear for the doctors and nurses. They’re buying dust masks and face shields from the hardware store because they don’t have proper M-95s for the staff. Some places they’re wearing bandanas like in a cowboy movie.

    Good thing the bug isn’t as fatal as we’ve all been afraid it was. Major wake-up call for Canadians.

    Big difference from the USA, there are no private hospitals here. Only public, government-run ones. Just keep that in mind for November voting, Americans. Socialized medicine is actually just rationing and a huge tax hike.

  39. I’ll add my two cents worth. The best advice I’ve seen in all this was a short article in our local paper by a longtime local doctor: Folks, stop panicking. It’s only making things worse. Stop demanding antibiotics, they don’t work on viruses and can actually make things worse. Be clean, wash your hands often and we’ll, sneeze into the crook of your arm, stay out of crowded areas, stay home if sick unless you need the hospital. Most infected people can actually treat themselves at home with rest, vitamins and minerals, plenty of water, and nourishing, easily digestible food(think soup or stew). He adds: notice I didn’t say to hoard toilet paper, sanitary wipes, or other supplies. To this I will add(warning, non-expert advice ahead) : The understanding I have is that your body has to learn to fight off the virus. A vaccine is essentially an inert form of the virus. A sort of microbial punching bag if you will, for your immune system to learn on. So, like a good fighter, keep you body in shape. I recommend Echinacea and I good multivitamin. I am told elderberry juice or extract have some general antiviral properties. So if you’ve ever wanted to try homemade wine, maybe now is as good a time as ever 🙂

  40. My .Gov agency has put me on permanent telework until further notice. It’s nice to be kept on full pay while things work out. One weird thing, there’s a strange woman in my house. Apparently, we’re married. She seems nice.

    Ba-Dum-Tis. Enjoy the show, folks. Tip your waitress, I’ll be here all week.

    :-0)

  41. Barring a severe underlying autoimmune issue, significantly reduced lung function, or abnormal lung inflammation, your kids are in no real danger from Covid-19. I’m relatively certain that’s why it hit the Chinese so hard that they instituted their lockdown and quarantines(Ignore their official numbers, it’s a bunch of bullshit, they had way more deaths than they reported). The air quality was so bad that the inflammation caused by Covid piggybacked the issues caused by the pollution. It’s also why their case load dropped so quickly as soon as they shut down all the factories and the air quality improved by a hilarious amount.

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