Monster Hunter Nation

Quick update

I’m home from Chattacon, and had a great time. However I picked up a nasty cold while I was there. I’ve got a ton of things to write about, but I’ll just have to catch up later. Right now I’ve got to finish editing Grunge so you guys can have your eARCs. If you’ve sent me an email or PM in the last two weeks, my apologies. I’ll get back to you when I can.

In the meantime, I’ve seen a bunch of people talking about the shooting in Oregon, so it is time to repost this article I wrote a couple of years ago after some other controversial shootings:

http://monsterhunternation.com/2014/11/25/the-legalities-of-shooting-people/

If you don’t understand the legalities of shooting people, read that essay. It will keep you from looking really dumb on the internet.

I also want to write something about Iowa. Called it. Hell, I called it six months ago. I really should have Karl Rove’s job. The only thing I underestimated was the size of the easily bamboozled, believe anything White Obama says crowd. The media has given Trump 3/4 of their coverage, and the people have given him 1/4 of the votes. This will get worse as second tier candidates run out of money and drop out and the Anybody But Trump vote coalesces around fewer candidates.

This just illustrates why you should never freak out too much based on polls. Really, more people should take Stats in college.

An Interview I did with JP Enterprises at SHOT
On my way to ChattaCon
WATYF
Guest

I’m not sure how Iowa is an indicator of anything. Cruz eked out a win in a caucus (i.e. not a popular vote) in a tiny state. When the popular votes start in several states, I’ll be interested to see how things shake out, but as of right now, we don’t know anything more than we did before: Trump, Cruz, and Rubio are the top three.

WATYF

Doug Loss
Guest
Not quite true. We know that for all the hype Trump’s been getting, the polls have not been accurately representing the views of the voters. As for the Iowa caucuses not being a popular vote, they’re just as much a popular vote as any primary is. People had to go to their caucus locations to cast their votes (and in the Republican caucus, they were casting secret ballots, not standing in a particular section of the room). As to not knowing anything more than we did before, that’s pretty obviously not true either. We know that Cruz has a solid… Read more »
NukemHill
Guest
In some ways, it looks like Cruz is taking a page from Obama’s book. He’s got a killer ground game, including, apparently, an elite number crunching team. It clearly paid dividends in Iowa. But New Hampshire and South Carolina are different critters. Let’s see how his GOTV machinery works in those states. If he significantly over performs, and Trump’s lack of a ground game leads him to significantly under perform, then we’ve got a horse race for the Republican primaries. I still can’t tell if Rubio is a long-term factor or not. He’s really counting on momentum carrying him to… Read more »
Doug Loss
Guest

Well, I think the GOP elite has a blinding hatred of Cruz. In the last week or two before the Iowa caucus, they were talking as though Trump was acceptable to them, so long as Cruz was beaten. Now that Trump doesn’t look so invulnerable as before, they seem to be coalescing around Rubio as the establishment candidate with the best chance of stopping Cruz. We’ll see how that resonates with the voters, but this season being anointed by the GOP hierarchy, far from being helpful, seems to be more akin to the kiss of death.

NukemHill
Guest

Don’t confuse hatred with fear. The GOP establishment fears Cruz. His willingness to upset the applecart has them tied in knots.

Josh
Guest

@nukemhill “In some ways, it looks like Cruz is taking a page from Obama’s book”

Cruz flat out stated he was copying Obama’s campaign strategy a few months ago.

jic
Guest

Why not? Running for office is the only thing Obama has ever been competent at.

Steph Houghton
Guest

Right Trump gets 3/4s of the press attention, and under performs his polls by 10 points, getting 1/4 of the vote. But we know nothing new.

Yu Ain-Gonnano
Guest

The next question is what happens when the others drop out. That really should start happening pretty soon. Maybe Fiorina’s and Christie’s would go to Trump, but everyone else’s is likely to choose Cruz or Rubio.

My opinion is that anyone who could support Trump already is. He very well might be 35% of the population’s first choice, but my guess is that he’s nobody’s second, third, or fourth choice.

Joe in PNG
Guest

Depends on how New Hampshire goes. My guess is that Rubio will pick up the win (NH never picks the Iowa winner in the Rep race).
If that happens, Trump is pretty much finished. Trump is more or less a “bandwagon’ candidate. If the race is between Cruz and Rubio, Trump loses out on the media buzz which has been keeping him going.

John Brown
Guest

Here’s a survey of second choice candidates back on 1/5/16. Trump is a top second choice for only Cruz and Carson supporters. But even then it’s only 30% and 26%.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/poll-trump-leads-when-it-comes-second-choice-cruz-top

TallDave
Guest

Yes, Trump’s ceiling should become apparent soon.

There are a lot of people who would be happy with either Cruz or Rubio, both good conservative candidates.

Dave
Guest

I came up Sunday morning hoping to meet you but I couldn’t find you! Any plans to return to the Chattanooga area in the future?

Bruce
Guest

For years a lot of black voters have assumed all their politicians are liars, so they might as well vote for the most entertaining liar. With Sarah Palin and now Trump, we see a white vote on that line. Both Trump and Palin have some real chops, but I’d say that’s where their votes come from.

James May
Guest
People say that’s where the Puppies come from too. What is there about the words “push back” some people don’t understand? Call a man a dog often enough and don’t be surprised if he barks. Call me “cis white dude” often enough and that’s exactly what you’ll get. Goose meet gander. Is it possible for the Right to be infiltrated by white supremacists that were there all along and only now pretending to be hurt? Sure. But we know “feminism” and the Left have been infiltrated by an anti-white, anti-male ideology of female-worship. That’s precisely why all this identity politics… Read more »
Doug Loss
Guest

Agreed. We have to uphold the values of civilized society, our touchstones as you say. But we also need to not be afraid to call the barbarians who oppose us out when they try to assault us. Tolerance (not as the left would have it, tacit acceptance, but refusal to oppose) hasn’t been reciprocated by the barbarians, so why continue it? The best way to beat them is with ridicule and belittling, I think. And humor, which they have no real defense against, being totally devoid of humor or the ability to understand it.

James May
Guest

Social justice crusaders have a sense of humor alright. Why else would Apex feature Requires Hate, the most insanely psychotic man-hating racist in the history of SF in their current issue? Because they’re against Vox Day. Get it? I’m sure next issue they’ll feature a rat, or a monkey, or maybe the Grand Dragon of the KKK. They’re a barrel of laughs. They’re like the National Lampoon of SFF.

“Buy this issue or we’ll shoot this dog and also make Santa R. Delany a Grandmaster of YA fiction.”

Terrific humorists.

Doug Loss
Guest

No, we see what they do as humorous (because it’s objectively absurd), but they don’t. They’re not being humorous; they’re deadly serious. Which I agree just makes it funnier, but it’s not like they get the joke.

TallDave
Guest

Exactly, Doug. That’s the one eternal struggle: civilized values against barbarism. And it’s never too hard to figure out which side is which.

Bugmaster
Guest

Hey, I’m white, and I’m really hoping that the rest of the election will be Trump vs. Sanders. Because that would be awesome.

I don’t expect either of them to fulfill any of their promises if they actually get elected, so it doesn’t really matter to me which one of them wins, I’m just in it for the free entertainment.

I realize that this is totally unlikely, and that we’re most probably looking at Cruz vs. Clinton, but still, one can hope…

Stuart the Viking
Guest
The real problem with that attitude is that the Supreme Court is aging. Can you imagine what kind of jurist either Trump or Sanders would nominate? Say goodbye to property rights. Sanders, because he doesn’t really believe in them (maybe to the point of being hostile to the idea, after all, property rights gets in the way of redistribution). Trump because his open LOVE affair with eminent domain. Clinton would be just as bad. Hell, she would probably take your shit… then lie to your face and say she didn’t do it (something my kids grew out of about the… Read more »
someone
Guest

“That leaves us with Cruz, not sure what he would offer for the court”

Really? The guy who clerked for two VRWC judges and was an incredibly effective advocate for constitutional conservatism as Texas SG?

Do y’all not realize what it means to make it through two Ivy League schools as a conservative?

Dave H
Guest

This just illustrates why you should never freak out too much based on polls.

If polls meant anything we wouldn’t need elections.

Brian Niemeier
Guest

Here’s wishing you a speedy recovery!

IAmDevinThomas
Guest

“Really, more people should take Stats in college.”
So much yes. Because no one on the internet understands margin of error.

Doug Loss
Guest

“Margin of error?” That’s the empty spaces on the sides of the error, right? Or is it a margin which appears where it shouldn’t be?

Yu Ain-Gonnano
Guest

Nah, it’s where you miss the deer by 2 feet to the right on the first shot and 2 feet to the left on the second and you jump for joy, screaming: “I got him!”

jic
Guest

That’s also a good example of the difference between accuracy and precision: sure, you completely missed the deer, but look how consistently the shots landed!

Radioactive
Guest

you’re so mean…

JimZ
Guest

I’ve opined before that in order to vote, you should be required to take and pass two semesters of the history of western civilization (as it used to be taught, that is, reasonably accurately), one semester of stats, and two semesters of economics. Because without them, as a voter you are at grave risk of being manipulated.

Not that pols won’t try to manipulate you anyway, but the above afford some degree of “inoculation” as it were.

Oh, and I’m an engineer, not a history or econ person. But I still consider the above education essential.

Radioactive
Guest

double the course requirement and we might get some where

Silchas_Ruin
Guest
Lots of talk about Cruz after the win. Not a American and this is 1 of the few places I visit with a republican bent. Online I mostly visit pop-culture sites who are either not political or clearly left wing. And the 5 min they might use on US politics in news over here (Denmark) not going to give a usefull picture. So from the sources I get most of my information Cruz is clearly the antichrist 🙂 I was thinking this could be a good place to get some actual information, other than he is evil. So I’m gonna… Read more »
Doug Loss
Guest

If you want to know his actual positions, why not read what he says about them?

https://www.tedcruz.org/issues/

Richard McEnroe
Guest

I suddenly want to smoke a cigarette, roll over and fall asleep.

BobtheRegisterredFool
Guest
BobtheRegisterredFool
Ted Cruz for Foreigners 101: Abstract: Ted Cruz is David Drake, Tom Kratman, and John C. Wright. If you stay out of his business, he will let you go to hell. If you make yourself his business, he will kill you. If your children are left behind, he will see that they are raised Christian. Conclusions: Ted Cruz is heavily interested in the inner workings of the United States, matters only of real interest to Americans. Q: I am a wealthy foreigner, and I want to know if it will be as easy to buy consideration as it was in… Read more »
BobtheRegisterredFool
Guest
BobtheRegisterredFool
I decided I also wanted to give a serious answer in a serious tone. The only aspect of abortion really likely to be in play is whether the Federal government continues to fund that organ trafficking organization. In the US, Bill Clinton is known to be a serial rapist, and ‘feminists’ heavily support him. Hillary was his chief blamer and discrediter of victims. She came to the job with prior experience, having protected a man who had raped a 14 year old. The ‘historic nuclear deal’ is probably a tissue of lies. Reality will tear it to shreds no matter… Read more »
Patrick Chester
Guest

The ‘historic nuclear deal’ is probably a tissue of lies. Reality will tear it to shreds no matter what Cruz or anyone else does.

Why do I suspect “Silchas_Ruin” never realized that Neville Chamberlain’s deal with Germany was pretty historic too.

Robin Munn
Guest

Re: the “if you were raped, you should be able to have an abortion” argument –

If a man commits any crime other than rape, is it just to punish his child for that crime?

If a man commits rape, is it just to punish his child for that crime?

Andrew
Guest

There you go. Assuming unborn children are people.

Joe in PNG
Guest

Regarding the Oregon thing- we on the Right need to be just as suspicious, cautious, careful, and hesitant to believe our own press sources as we are of the Mainstream Media. Even more so. “Fake But Accurate” isn’t suddenly okay because it’s about Obama or Hillary.

Alpheus
Guest
I have a lot of sympathy for those guys in Oregon and the cause they are trying to defend; it doesn’t help that the guy who was shot is almost a cousin-in-law. I’ve seen the video a couple times; while I can see how people strain to see unreasonable force, I think it’s a justified shooting, as much as I’d like to think that LeVoy had the best of intentions and meant no harm. Having said that, I reserve the right to be suspicious, and I’d like to see the autopsy report and hear any available audio. While there have… Read more »
Old 1811
Guest

I agree, sort of.
This was a straight Suicide By Cop. He knew what would happen if he dropped his hands, and he did it anyway. If any of the “LaVoy was murdered” types saw a video of anyone else (Michael Brown, for instance) doing the exact same thing, they would have no problem with it. But because they identify politically with the offender, they refuse to believe what their eyes tell them.
And any one of them would have done exactly what the officers did in the same situation.

Reality Observer
Guest

Thing is, from what has been seen so far, I at least cannot tell whether he dropped his hands before he was shot – or he dropped his hands BECAUSE he was shot.

The answer to that (if we ever get actual evidence either way) leads to two diametrically opposed conclusions.

The other thing, though, is that if we never do get that evidence – I figure the conclusion to be drawn is premeditated murder.

Old 1811
Guest

So what you’re saying is that the officer, knowing he was being videotaped, chose to shoot a surrendering, hands-up man in the hope that the way he fell would make it look like he was reaching for a weapon?
Ever hear of Occam’s Razor?

rocinante
Guest

Larry, thanks again for the great time at Chattacon.

I’m fighting off a cold myself. Maybe I have the ILOH virus! In any case, this always helps me fight it off, or failing that, drastically shorten the period of suffering: http://tiny.cc/7vit8x

(The tea is good, too, but you have to drink a gallon of it to get the same effect…)

I find it interesting that the Chinese go to the trouble of importing American ginseng root to process and export.

Feather Blade
Guest

Well…. they’re kind of busy paving over their own country (according to the Top Gear guys) so maybe the supply just isn’t there?

DaveP.
Guest

So hey- the obnoxious guy that everyone hates, who supported Democrats and had no prior political experience, showed up in Iowa and not only beat all the Establishment choices but came within four points of beating the Great Conservative Hope… all without a ground game.
Kinda makes you wonder if the GOP has been doing this whole “politics” thing wrong for all these years, huh?

The Phantom
Guest

Hey, Justin “Shiny Pony” Trudeau got elected Prime Minister of Canada based on good hair and name recognition.

Not kidding. His most responsible job prior to being crowned the Next Big Hope for the Liberals was high school drama teacher. Part time, no less. Couldn’t get a full-time gig.

And as much of a New York liberal as Trump is, I very much doubt he could be as clueless as a former part-time drama teacher with really good hair.

Daveyboy58
Guest

So true Phantom. We need leadership, what we got is a sock puppet(with nice hair). The boy can’t think on his own, only says what the back room Liberal elite tell him to say.

Christopher M. Chupik
Guest
Christopher M. Chupik

We have Prime Minister Nice Hair, and if the US elects Trump, you’ll have President Fake Hair.

Randy P.
Guest

On top of it, Trudeau is Obama-lite in every single respect.

The only way you guys down south could possibly have it worse is with Hilldawg or Uncle Bernie.

Richard McEnroe
Guest

No, they’ve,been doing it right… for the wrong people.

Sharon
Guest

It was really nice meeting you at Chattacon. Thank you for signing books and the playing card for me. When my players draw it while we are playing MHI they will get a special advantage.

Syme
Guest

Hey Larry – did you see the Coen brothers’ interview with an SJW writer in the Daily Beast? Sounds like they’re fans of your blog:

[Ethan Coen] continued: “You don’t sit down and write a story and say, ‘I’m going to write a story that involves four black people, three Jews, and a dog,’—right? That’s not how stories get written. If you don’t understand that, you don’t understand anything about how stories get written and you don’t realize that the question you’re asking is idiotic.

Dragonlord
Guest
In response to the cold/con crud that you seemed to have pulled in, I will suggest the following to prevent/cure it. And it does work for both. I use elderberry extract and South African Geranium (Umckaloabo) whenever I start to feel a cold come on. 4 days later, cold is gone and never comes to fruition. I take it at the rate of 1 geranium and 2 elderberry capsules morning and night. Sometimes, if I start it too late, I will double the dosage over the same amount of time. Nice part about this stuff is that you can slam… Read more »
Richard McEnroe
Guest

Cold remedy: whiskey of choice, lemon juice, sugar, hat.
Place hat at end of bed.
Mix lemon juice and sugar in whiskey, to taste.
Sip slowly until two hats are seen.
Cold will be cured.

Maplehighlander
Guest

Sounds like a Hot Toddy to me.

Radioactive
Guest

not sure what the lemon juice and sugar are for…suggest you substitute beer for same

TallDave
Guest

So glad you see through Trump, Larry. Way too many people are falling for this shameless unprincipled halfwit crony-socialist con man’s endless stream of nonsense. Fortunately the electorate seems to be waking up and realizing the GOP doesn’t need to play the celebrident game.

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